Roadmap
The Phase 1 proof is still open; Phase 2 moved forward in parallel while data is collected. No promised dates, no real money until the probabilities are proven.
Phase 1proof open
Predictor + contracts
- Kalshi is a training ground: we judge probabilities by Brier, not by paper P&L.
- AUG-POC token + round registry (Foundry) live on testnet; read-only dashboard online.
- No edge claimed. No real capital until a probability edge is proven.
- Expected output: a written go/no-go on the probabilities — not a strategy to make money.
Phase 2advanced
DAO MVP testnet
- Governance and rules advanced on testnet — on purpose, while data is collected. That is not the proof.
- Token governance (one vote per whole token, anti-cartel cap).
- Oracle aggregator v1; the mutual (phase 3) is not launched.
Phase 3upcoming
Parametric mutual
- Mutualization pool, on-chain pricing signed by the predictor.
- Oracle settlement on NOAA / NWS observations.
- First categories: extreme temperature, precipitation, wind.
Phase 4long term
DePIN data layer
- Weather stations rewarded on data quality and coverage.
- Native Aratea oracle on selected areas, consumable by other protocols.
No pre-edge raise, no premature incorporation. The living detail lives in the repo and the white paper.