Predict the weather,
pool the risk.
Aratea is building on-chain infrastructure: an open-source weather predictor, a contract-based settlement layer, and eventually a decentralized parametric mutual. Research in progress, in the open.
paper-only · no real capital at risk · illustrative data
Make climate-risk coverage transparent, measurable, and collective.
Climate risk is rising, but covering it stays opaque: premiums computed in a black box, slow payouts, margins captured by middlemen. Aratea explores another path — a decentralized parametric mutual where coverage triggers on verifiable data, where capital is pooled by its members, and where every parameter is public.
Everything rests on one non-negotiable condition: proving, with numbers, that we predict climate events better than an efficient market. Without that edge, a mutual misprices its contracts and puts itself at risk. That's why Phase 1 risks no real capital — we measure first, deploy later.
We move by milestones, not by calendar, and we document failures as much as wins. No yield promise, no speculation: just an open protocol anyone can audit, challenge, and push forward.
Radical transparency
Code, method and decisions in the open. Everything is verifiable, nothing hidden.
Proof before capital
No real money until the predictive edge is demonstrated.
Member-governed
A mutual owned and steered by the people who build it.
Risk is climbing; coverage isn't keeping up.
The protection gap — the distance between losses suffered and losses insured — keeps widening, most of all where means are scarce.
Source: Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2025.
A mutual, not a company.
Verifiable, not declarative
Parameters, capital and triggers are public and auditable on-chain — not a black box.
Aligned with its members
Capital is pooled by the very people it covers; no shareholders to pay first.
Programmable and open
Payout triggers on data, with no middleman to convince, and the protocol stays open to all.
When climate becomes a market, coverage becomes programmable.
Aratea ties three pieces together: predicting climate events better than an efficient market, settling parametric contracts on-chain, and pooling risk in a member-governed structure. Everything is open — the code, the method, the decisions.
The real state, not a screenshot.
source: dashboard · updated Jul 10, 2026
Three tracks, in the open.
Predictor
Kalshi-market POC, paper-only. Iterative methodological validation: no edge claimed yet, no real-money position.
Contracts
AUG-POC token and round registry built with Foundry, covered by tests and static analysis in CI. Arbitrum Sepolia deployment in progress.
Dashboard
Read-only view of on-chain state and the predictor. No signature, no key, no broadcast transaction.
Predict, settle, mutualize.
The logic is sequential: no downstream piece starts until the previous one is proven.
Predict
An ensemble of weather models tested against the market price, scored with Brier. The edge must be proven before any capital is committed.
Settle
Solidity contracts ratify and execute rounds. No on-chain emission cap: quality is gated off-chain.
Mutualizeupcoming
Eventually, a token-governed capital pool, parametric execution, oracle-driven indemnification.
Chained by milestones, not by calendar.
Predictor + contractscurrent
Prove the predictive edge and ship the settlement layer.
DAO MVP testnet
Token governance, first parametric contracts on testnet.
Parametric mutual
Mutualization pool, on-chain pricing, oracle settlement.
DePIN data layer
Rewarded weather stations, native oracle on selected areas.
What people ask us.
Is this insurance?
No. Aratea is not regulated insurance under the French Insurance Code or Solvency II — it is a research project toward a decentralized parametric mutual.
Can I invest or expect a yield?
No. No yield promise, no open raise. Phase 1 is paper-only: no real capital is committed.
Where is the predictor?
In iterative methodological validation. No edge is claimed at this stage; results are published as they come.
How do I contribute?
Everything is open. Easiest path: Discord or a GitHub issue. Dev, weather, economics, design, governance — see the Contribute section.
Aratea is built with you.
This isn't a finished product we sell you — it's an open build you can shape. Whether you write contracts, model weather, reason about risk economics, design interfaces or think about governance, there's a place and a real problem your size.
Dev & contracts
Foundry, Solidity, tests, audits.
Weather modeling
predictors, calibration, seasonal backtests.
Economics & actuarial
pricing, mutualization, capital management.
Design & product
UX, data-viz, plain-language explainers.
Governance & legal
bylaws, token voting, compliance.
Curious
read, share, challenge the assumptions.
We build, document and decide in public. The easiest way in: a note on Discord, an issue on GitHub, or the form below.